The 48-Hour Feasibility Test

Every development conversation starts with optimism. Someone has a site, a building, a vision or a funding opportunity, and they want to know if it can work. The first 48 hours are where we decide whether it deserves real time and money — and the most important thing to build in that window isn’t a pro forma. It’s trust.

This is for emerging developers, nonprofits and cities: anyone weighing an opportunity and deciding how far to take it.

Don’t fall in love early

The most expensive mistakes in development usually start as enthusiasm. A deal looks exciting, people want it to work, and every new fact gets read in its favor. Bias rarely announces itself. It shows up as a reasonable-sounding assumption that keeps getting carried forward.

So the first discipline is simple: don’t fall in love with a deal until you have all the facts. Think critically, and notice the moment you start defending an answer instead of testing it.

The questions, in order

Before any numbers, we ask about purpose:

1. What are you trying to get done?
2. If we do this, what do you hope the outcome will be?
3. Who are the project champions?
4. What makes this development more compelling than its competition?

The last question matters more than people expect. Virtually every development has a gap in its capital stack, and the resources to fill those gaps are limited. A project has to stand out to earn the scarce dollars it needs.

The champions question matters too. Projects move because people move them. Without someone committed who has standing and staying power, even a great site will stall.

Build the budget from zero

Every budget we build starts at zero, not from someone else’s pro forma. Then we work in a specific order:

• What exactly are we offering?
• What is that worth in this market?
• What are the realistic expenses?

Only after those answers are honest do we look at the gap.

The order matters because you can make the numbers say anything you want if you lose control of them. Start with the gap and you’ll find yourself nudging rents, trimming expenses and squeezing construction costs until the deal “works.” It won’t. Don’t lose control of the numbers.

Red flags that end the conversation

• Sources and uses that don’t balance.
• Unrealistic rents or expenses.
• Uninformed construction costs.

If you believe you can do better than the market, that’s fine — but you need to explain how and why. And if it’s your first deal and you’re relying on hope, we’re not your firm.

When we walked away

We once worked with a new developer on its first deal. The team believed it could push the market beyond what experienced people knew it would bear. It didn’t respond to coaching, and it didn’t honor its commitments. We walked.

Inexperience wasn’t the problem; everyone starts somewhere. The problem was an unwillingness to test assumptions, and a gap between what was promised and what was done. In development, trust is the real currency.

What passes the test

A project earns a deeper look when exploratory questions get solid answers. Not every answer has to be complete. “I don’t know, but I’m curious to find out” is a perfectly good answer in the first 48 hours. It tells us the team is honest about what it knows and willing to do the work.

Good developers give their team a lot of information, because better information produces better answers. The opportunities worth pursuing usually come with people who want their assumptions challenged, not protected.

Still true

One of my early favorite quotes, often attributed to the architect Ludwig Mies van der Rohe, is “God is in the details.” It’s still true. The first 48 hours aren’t about having every detail. They’re about finding out, quickly and honestly, whether the details are worth chasing.